Author Topic: Election 2017  (Read 4197 times)

Offline Sorted.

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #90 on: May 17, 2017, 06:14:15 AM »
FYI i've been out at weekend canvassing and leafleting for Labour. As i have done for many years.   For my MP and my party..Not for Corbyn.  Most people I have spoken to on the doorstep, if they arent voting for Theresa, will say 'for my MP not for Corbyn'   Incidentally, the Corbyn fan base want the Labour MP gone.  We've been battling them for ages.  They're mostly not out canvassing.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 07:10:00 AM by Sorted. »

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #91 on: May 17, 2017, 08:21:25 AM »
Thanks Wolfie. Spot on.

And you'd have trouble finding someone who is trying every which way to be practical to help Labour more than Sorted.

The extent to which everyone can chip is different depending on their constituency. Mine is a 26,000 Tory majority. My current CLP is entirely run by Corbynites most less than two years into joining. They send out Momentum stuff targeting and naming anyone who isn't loyal to Corbyn despite members repeatedly saying they don't want to receive material from third party organisations criticising Labour members. People who complain are laughed at and mocked in official minutes. Everyone from our Chair, parliamentary candidate, treasurer, secretary, membership secretary, womens officer, LGBT officer resigned on mass because of the intimidation. And they were never even asked their politics. The new regime simply wanted its own representatives in positions of power and their only crime was to not have been to the meeting that they have before the official meeting. At election time in 2015 they were spending the vast majority of their free time "doing something practical to get the Tories out." Then they were told they were Tories and they should just leave.

Not everyone's constituency will be as bad as mine.

But I do wonder how I am going to damage the parties chances of winning incrementally by saying on here that I want people to vote for Labour but there are also problems in the party. Whereas Len McCluskey, can announce via the press that Labour are unlikely  to win and a loss by 63 seats, a Tory majority of 80, our worst result since 1935, would be a good result. Why isn't he being criticised for having that effect? I feel there is a big element of people getting their excuses in early.

« Last Edit: May 17, 2017, 09:44:03 AM by Betty Croker's frosted buns »

Offline Tired, Confused & Duped

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #92 on: May 19, 2017, 10:59:59 PM »
The extent to which everyone can chip is different depending on their constituency.

Probably, but they could put up a poster, like I have (A3 size) and like my neighbour has when he saw mine and said he wanted one. If we had more time, the whole street might have posters.

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #93 on: May 21, 2017, 12:19:59 PM »
But all that's happened is that he now knows you were planning to vote Labour and you now know he was planning to vote Labour. Nobody who wasn't planning to vote Labour is now voting for them. And that is what needed to happen on a large scale for Labour to win. I don't think many people exist who weren't persuaded who to vote for and simply saw a sign in someone's window saying "Vote Labour" and thought "Ok. I will then." I know how most of the people in my street are voting because I've spoken to them - 18 Tories, 3 Lib Dems, 2 UKIP and 6 including us abstaining. If I put a "Vote Labour" poster in my window given how right wing the community is, given the 25,000 plus Tory majority, it'll probably prompt a few otherwise too complacent to need to vote Tories, to bother to turn out to vote Conservative.

And by the the way, the "We support Jeremy Corbyn" FB page is urging people not to vote tactically to get the Tories out but to vote Labour even where the Lib Dems or Greens have the better chance because apparently "every vote for Labour is a vote for Corbyn's leadership."  which is the exact opposite of what we are being told publically by Corbynites - i.e. Vote Labour to get the Tories out whether you like Corbynism or not. It's all so disingenuous.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2017, 12:26:36 PM by Betty Croker's frosted buns »

Offline Tired, Confused & Duped

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #94 on: May 21, 2017, 10:43:54 PM »
I live in a very densely populated area that traditionally votes Labour. Reminding Labour voters to vote seems a good idea.

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #95 on: May 22, 2017, 09:10:15 PM »
I have just seen this and wanted to share.

Poem by Agnes Török on the news of a new Conservative budget
Based on experiences of living in Britain under austerity as a young, queer, unemployed, female immigrant student - and not taking it any more.
https://youtu.be/kiaxHUFAWew
“Expectations are resentments under construction.”
― Anne Lamott

Offline avanti

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #96 on: May 25, 2017, 09:10:32 PM »
Andrew effing Murray.

It's actual sabotage.

Things are a little different in Scotland what with SNP cult-dominance, Tory resurgence under Ruth Davidson and Labour squeezed between the SNP independence /Tory unionist vice - but I've known "Andrew effing Murray" for over 50 years and can assure you that his appointment is an irrelevance to the debate; that the coverage is in a long tradition of right wing media smears against the left in a pre-election period; and he is a decent, principled, thoughtful man even if you don't agree with his political stance. Labour's problems lie elsewhere.

Offline Wolfgang

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #97 on: May 30, 2017, 10:11:05 PM »
So is JC doing better than expected? I want to believe.

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #98 on: May 31, 2017, 12:51:38 AM »
I’m amused by the idea that all of a sudden polls are to be believed, having been dismissed as propaganda up until now. And even then we see post-truth headlines like “Corbyn surges ahead” and when you actually read the story, its about Labour narrowing the gap to being only 5 points behind. How can you surge ahead whilst being actually that far behind? Yet at this time in 2015, one major poll was predicting a 1 point lead for Labour and the other major authoritive poll was suggesting a 1 point lead for the Tories. Both managed to miss a 7 point Tory lead on actual election day. And all the polls that have famously got it wrong have previously missed large right wing results rather than just got it wrong all-together.

For me personally, if the Tories get in, my job will disappear and I won’t be able to pay the mortgage. And I won’t have family or friends with assets around me who will pick up the slack. I will be totally screwed.

I’d love to know at this stage how life-changing the election result will be for posters, rather than just how pleased they will be, whether it goes one way or the other.

Offline Wolfgang

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #99 on: May 31, 2017, 05:51:49 AM »

For me personally, if the Tories get in, my job will disappear and I won’t be able to pay the mortgage. And I won’t have family or friends with assets around me who will pick up the slack. I will be totally screwed.

I’d love to know at this stage how life-changing the election result will be for posters, rather than just how pleased they will be, whether it goes one way or the other.


I worry about this a lot. I won't starve. But as a disabled person who needs extremely compassionate care I'm screwed. Plus, M.E. research has been catastrophically fücked by Tory ideological crap since the 1980s. 

If I ever do recover, I want to study and work and salvage something from my life having got ill at 19, and I don't see that happening in the post-Brexit Tory dystopia.

I didn't think Kinnock's warning applied to the upper middle classes, but it does now.  The Tories have made a wasteland out of my privileged prospects.  I see care costs and bleakness and suicide.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2017, 08:07:07 AM by Wolfgang »

Offline Sorted.

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #100 on: May 31, 2017, 07:47:04 AM »
We'll read headlines like 'Surges ahead' a lot.. From right wing press as well.  It always works for the Tories. They did it to Red Ed.  'Look how close he is. Be afraid'   
The caveats to this poll say that on a good night the tories will have their landslide and on a bad night, parliament gets hung.  It actually says not a lot but this one graphic has been pounced upon.  Even the graphic doesn't stand scrutiny though. It relies on the SNP holding all but 4 of their seats and the NI parties keeping all of theirs.   The same polling company suggests that the Tories are set to take more SNP seats

Re your question, Wolfie..I think May is doing worse than expected. The same polling company has Corbyns personal ratings as way behind hers. There hasn't been much shift at all. So this poll will do the Tories no harm. 

...and so I'm off on my leafleting round this morning..keep trying and that but I fear May will be returned.

Incidentally, I've just fo back from a visit home. There has been a mini surge for Labour in Wales but their manifesto bears little resemblence to UK Labour.  Carwyn directly contradicted Jeremy's speech on Foreign Policy yesterday.  The tory surge in Wales is way more worrying.  I can't fathom it. 

 Edited with corrected NI/SNP figures. I read them incorrwctly at 7 am.  Points still stands...it's all top end estimates.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2017, 10:24:53 AM by Sorted. »

Offline Sorted.

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #101 on: May 31, 2017, 07:58:28 AM »
I don't spend all of my time reading polls by the way, it juat happens that my Politics & Government teaching rotation has coincided with this bloody election and I've been making poll powerpoints like a good un.  Polls make no sense...wait for the exit poll..mind you they even got that wrong in 2015.

In answer to your question, Betty, I don't think it makes a huge difference to my own position who wins..if my circumstances were to change for the worse then the Tories I would fear the most.

I'm lucky and it's thanks to the opportunities that the last Labour gov gave me that I'm in this position.  Course all of the initiative I benefitted from have since been scrapped.

« Last Edit: May 31, 2017, 10:20:35 AM by Sorted. »

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #102 on: May 31, 2017, 08:55:33 AM »
Yeah. I owe everything I have to past Labour Governments. Labour Governments that left wing friends of mine would only ever happily slag off for not being ideologically pure enough and voted Green instead.

My industry is totally dependent on Government funding. As a result I earn £3k less than I did in 2000, in actual annual salary. God knows what this amounts to in real terms. Once the Human Rights Act/ECHR commitment formally goes, it will simply cease to exist.

My question was prompted by the fact that two of the most ardent Corbyn supporters on my FB are doing the "an ordinary leader thinks of the next election, a real leader thinks of the next generation" get out speech. "We've done really well to get within 5 points and even if we lose it shows support is growing and it was worth it" yada yada. What royally p@sses me off is that one of them lives in Melbourne Australia and the other lives in Donegal. Not really happy to be part of their experiment unless the consequences of getting it wrong hurt them as much as me.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2017, 08:59:04 AM by Betty Croker's frosted buns »

Offline Sorted.

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #103 on: May 31, 2017, 10:16:53 AM »
I spotted lots of Labour posters up on my round this a.m.  Hopefully Simon Kirby's days are numbered.

I also can't type on my phone.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2017, 10:21:19 AM by Sorted. »

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #104 on: May 31, 2017, 10:33:16 AM »
Is anyone in Scotland?  How real is the Tory revival?  Will they make lots of gains or is it poll spin?