Author Topic: Election 2017  (Read 2399 times)

Offline Wolfgang

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Election 2017
« on: Apr 18, 2017, 07:01:26 PM »
Because if we can't muster a thread about this…

Offline Trifle

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #1 on: Apr 18, 2017, 07:28:36 PM »
I'm worried Labour will be obliterated.

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #2 on: Apr 18, 2017, 09:11:13 PM »
They will, unfortunately.

Voted Labour my entire life.

Not this time though.

It really saddens me to see the party brought to its knees by the current leadership.

Offline Trifle

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #3 on: Apr 18, 2017, 09:48:24 PM »
Indeed.  :-\

And if Scotland becomes independent it will be very hard for Labour to gain power again in the future. Things are looking pretty bleak.

I've no idea who I'll vote for.


Offline Lyco

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #4 on: Apr 18, 2017, 09:50:45 PM »
I'm relieved. So so relieved.

Seriously.

I mean, yes Labour is heading for electoral oblivion and yes, the result will be brutal and the worse for decades but perhaps, just perhaps it'll finally mean the end of the Corbyn experiment. The thought of watching Labour sink further down in the polls and spending the next two years seeing Corbyn destroy what is left of the Labour Party has been unbearable.

It'll hurt and it'll be shit on the night itself but it might mean the end of Corbyn comes sooner rather than later and there will be something left to salvage.

Offline Trifle

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #5 on: Apr 18, 2017, 10:15:18 PM »
I hear what you're saying. Who will replace him though. Not that long ago he was voted back in as the leader despite it looking like he was unelectable.

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #6 on: Apr 18, 2017, 10:29:31 PM »
I'm relieved. So so relieved.

Seriously.

I mean, yes Labour is heading for electoral oblivion and yes, the result will be brutal and the worse for decades but perhaps, just perhaps it'll finally mean the end of the Corbyn experiment. The thought of watching Labour sink further down in the polls and spending the next two years seeing Corbyn destroy what is left of the Labour Party has been unbearable.

It'll hurt and it'll be shit on the night itself but it might mean the end of Corbyn comes sooner rather than later and there will be something left to salvage.

I wish I believed that, Lyco. I hope you are right. Not that Labour are wiped out. I would give anything to be wrong about that.

But I don't think it follows that if they are wiped out at the General Election then Corbyn will go. It seems to me that the type of people who voted him in, will not change tack for anything. They don't seem to care if Labour get decimated. All they seem to care about is the chance to deselect MP's who don't tick the box for supporting Corbyn and replace them with any brainless middle-class student with his tongue up John Mcdonnell's a'se.

I hope you are right but even if this does happen , I think they will just spray the blame in any direction, not learn from it and continue to disrespect the electorate. A lot of them are from quite well off backgrounds and have nothing or little to lose from the Tories being in power forever. As long as they get to wear their Che Guevarra t-shirts and feel like radicals in the meantime, the real world needn't penetrate.

Offline Lyco

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #7 on: Apr 18, 2017, 11:20:55 PM »
I think you're right that Corbyn will try and hold on but a fair few things are up the air at the moment.

Turnout is higher than usual for Unite's election. It's unlikely that Gerard Coyne will win but if he does, he'll immediately withdraw support for Corbyn and if it's tight and McClusky wins but with a much reduced vote then that will lower his support for Corbyn too. Which right now, might not make a difference but that, together with a bad showing at the locals and the inevitable election wipeout may mean he ends up with no choice but to go.  Don't underestimate the significance of the unions in this.

Plus. I just don't think that Corbyn would stay if there was hostility towards him in the membership and whilst there are plenty of hard core Cobynites, remember Owen Smith got 40% of the vote and he wasn't a standout candidate. I genuinely can't see Corbyn getting 60% on the back of electoral oblivion, particularly with Momentum having their own internal battles and union support (and therefore affiliated votes) wavering.

Plus, there will be another leadership contest and this time there might be a viable left choice like Lisa Nandy to contest him. I also wouldn't rule out Yvette Cooper either.

Lynton Crosby is running the Tory election campaign and it will be brutal because that's his style. If you think Corbyn and McDonnell have had a hard time from moderates and the PLP, I don't think we've seen anything like the hostility they'll get from the Tory election machine.

So yeah, I think all of the above will damage Corbyn irretrievably and I don't think his heart is in it now or he wants to be Prime Minster so a damaging election campaign on the back of probable poor local election results will mean he goes after a half hearted attempt to stay.

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #8 on: Apr 18, 2017, 11:32:04 PM »
I think you're right that Corbyn will try and hold on but a fair few things are up the air at the moment.

Turnout is higher than usual for Unite's election. It's unlikely that Gerard Coyne will win but if he does, he'll immediately withdraw support for Corbyn and if it's tight and McClusky wins but with a much reduced vote then that will lower his support for Corbyn too. Which right now, might not make a difference but that, together with a bad showing at the locals and the inevitable election wipeout may mean he ends up with no choice but to go.  Don't underestimate the significance of the unions in this.

Plus. I just don't think that Corbyn would stay if there was hostility towards him in the membership and whilst there are plenty of hard core Cobynites, remember Owen Smith got 40% of the vote and he wasn't a standout candidate. I genuinely can't see Corbyn getting 60% on the back of electoral oblivion, particularly with Momentum having their own internal battles and union support (and therefore affiliated votes) wavering.

Plus, there will be another leadership contest and this time there might be a viable left choice like Lisa Nandy to contest him. I also wouldn't rule out Yvette Cooper either.

Lynton Crosby is running the Tory election campaign and it will be brutal because that's his style. If you think Corbyn and McDonnell have had a hard time from moderates and the PLP, I don't think we've seen anything like the hostility they'll get from the Tory election machine.

So yeah, I think all of the above will damage Corbyn irretrievably and I don't think his heart is in it now or he wants to be Prime Minster so a damaging election campaign on the back of probable poor local election results will mean he goes after a half hearted attempt to stay.

God, I do hope you are right.

I don't think he ever wanted to be Prime Minister. I think he just always wanted the Labour Party to reflect his own image. Middle-class, jam making, wool-winding, pacifists with men keeping a gentle but firm hand on the tiller and women making the tea and quietly expressing devotion. All the while vehemently opposing capitalism in theory without ever having the means to do anything about it in practice.

But I do think his supporters unite in the face of adversity rather than self-reflect on why they are being opposed. So the Tory election machine will crank up the opposition to him being elected but give his supporters yet another excuse to blame and unify around the idea of the MSM rather than address why he is such easy fodder for the press when other less controversial candidates may have stood a much better chance.

Offline Tired & Confused

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #9 on: Apr 19, 2017, 12:17:24 AM »
I'll vote Labour, as usual.

Not voting Labour, for Labour supporters, is like not voting for Hillary.

Do we need more lessons?

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #10 on: Apr 19, 2017, 12:31:20 AM »
I'll vote Labour, as usual.

Not voting Labour, for Labour supporters, is like not voting for Hillary.

Do we need more lessons?

Who you vote for, is a matter for you.

Who I vote for is a matter for me.

The difference between me not voting Labour and US voters not voting for Hilary, is that I live in a constituency with a 26,000 Tory majority where my vote will make no difference at all. whereas votes for Hilary would have probably counted.

But then Hilary had a chance of actually winning. She won the popular vote.

For Corbyn to win, he has to win seats that Milliband didn't. And persuade voters that didn't vote Labour to switch to Labour.

So far he has managed to lose seats than even Milliband won, rather than win extra seats. And his supporters are reduced to trying to persuade life long Labour voters like me to still vote Labour.

So basically, we are fucked.
« Last Edit: Apr 19, 2017, 12:32:54 AM by Betty Croker's frosted buns »

Offline Wolfgang

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #11 on: Apr 19, 2017, 12:48:50 AM »
^^ Tbf hardly anyone ever self-reflects on why they are being opposed.


I'm worried about what May's decision says about how Brexit's going.

Offline Betty Croker's frosted buns

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #12 on: Apr 19, 2017, 12:54:33 AM »
^^ Tbf hardly anyone ever self-reflects on why they are being opposed.

Almost every party traditionally hires political analysts to assess where they have dropped votes and why, so they can improve electorally.

I did 3 years of statistical political science myself. The arrogance of Corbynism is that they don't seem to care.


Offline Tired & Confused

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #13 on: Apr 19, 2017, 12:56:23 AM »
BCfb, if you live in the same constituency where you've previously voted Labour, notwithstanding the 26k Tory majority, the value of your vote is the same as it always was. What reason is there to vote differently now?

Offline Wolfgang

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Re: Election 2017
« Reply #14 on: Apr 19, 2017, 01:02:41 AM »
^^ Tbf hardly anyone ever self-reflects on why they are being opposed.

Almost every party traditionally hires political analysts to assess where they have dropped votes and why, so they can improve electorally.

I did 3 years of statistical political science myself. The arrogance of Corbynism is that they don't seem to care.


Ah, i didn't realize you were talking about professionals 8)