Author Topic: So... Labour..  (Read 43820 times)

lyko

  • Guest
So... Labour..
« on: May 07, 2016, 07:35:32 PM »
What do we think? Did we do well at the locals? should we have done better? If so, how do we get better? Could we win in 2020? How's Jeremy doing? Can we possibly get to the end of page one of this thread without a big bloody row?

Saga N

  • Guest
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2016, 08:44:43 PM »
Well done for your bravery.  ;D

To my mind the Labour Party is on course to win the next election. Jeremy has proved himself to be gaining popularity and not the car crash the right of the party wanted. Far from it. All mayoral elections returned Labour candidates.

Scotland is going to be an ongoing battle, but that's not to do with Jeremy as leader, so much as the previous leadership and the mess they made around the referendum.

What bothers me is how thick people who think the stories are still doing a good job can be reached. Perhaps they can't. Perhaps Corbyn/Momentum's ground troops are better placed trying to reach new voters.   

Saga N

  • Guest
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2016, 11:52:15 PM »
Thinking about this though. Why title your thread 'Labour'? The real discussion is surely far wider than the petty infighting that goes on between Labour MPs. So much more is happening in politics than that, but here we are, pandering to the mainstream media obsession with Jeremy Corbyn - and not the bigger political issues that matter far more.  :-\

Offline Pomegranate

  • Gingerbeer Scene Queen
  • ***
  • Posts: 149
  • Gingerbeer.co.uk - The Lesbian Guide
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2016, 12:44:44 AM »
Well done for your bravery.  ;D

To my mind the Labour Party is on course to win the next election. Jeremy has proved himself to be gaining popularity and not the car crash the right of the party wanted. Far from it. All mayoral elections returned Labour candidates.

Scotland is going to be an ongoing battle, but that's not to do with Jeremy as leader, so much as the previous leadership and the mess they made around the referendum.

What bothers me is how thick people who think the stories are still doing a good job can be reached. Perhaps they can't. Perhaps Corbyn/Momentum's ground troops are better placed trying to reach new voters.


Let me break this to you gently.

Labour won't win the next general election. You must of also thought they'd win the last one when it was obvious that they wouldn't with the SNP, Greens and UKIP eating into their support.

Saga N

  • Guest
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2016, 10:24:51 AM »
Gosh, thanks for patronising me with that assertion backed up by no facts whatsoever. I feel enlightened.  :)

Slantrhyme

  • Guest
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2016, 11:18:29 AM »
 I think that labour are still some way from being able to win a general election.  I haven't seen any signs that it's remotely possible,  so let's hope they continue to mobilise support,  otherwise we are entirely fvcked. 

dukovearl

  • Guest
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2016, 11:23:11 AM »
I hope that Labour will win the next GE, but I am concerned about continued/increased interest in UKIP. We did a lot better in the locals than the direst predictions. A lot, and the mayoral results were extremely heartening.

My experience on the doorstep is that the people on our housing estates have mostly local concerns when it comes to electing a councillor, which can partly explain why things really don't get shaken up that much this far from a GE; people vote for the candidate they know and trust. However, the most worrying "local concern" is immigration. There is a (usually entirely mistaken and fear-led) perception that recent immigrants are being given council houses and school places ahead of local people. This isn't a white working class problem here - it's all creeds and colours - housing and places are so short, we have so many families living in appalling conditions and our northern Labour council has been starved of funds to such an extent that we might as well pray for miracles.

This is of particular relevance now because of the imminent EU referendum. People here will never vote Tory, but they will vote UKIP, because they believe Brexit will solve their problems. As far as I can tell, the nation is split on this issue above all others and I think that is why the local elections seemed less conclusive than some had hoped for so far as Labour and Conmen are concerned.


Offline Aline

  • Gingerbeer Goddess
  • *****
  • Posts: 764
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2016, 01:05:31 PM »
I don't think Labour have a hope in Hell of winning the next election, especially given the situation in Scotland. I'd like to be more optimistic but the Tories should have had a kicking in England and it just didn't happen.

One thing that worries me is UKIP doing pretty well in the Welsh Assembly elections. They won 7 assembly seats. Neil f***ing Hamilton won a seat! I despair. Though the Kippers mostly got in on the secondary regional voting list which is done on a kind of PR system.

The theory is that voters are jumping straight from Labour to UKIP as they feel Labour have over the years lost touch with the working class and also that none of the main parties are tough enough on migration. Older Labour voters who could never bring themselves to vote Tory see Nigel Farage as someone who 'gets' them and their concerns. I personally know a 60ish lifelong Labour voter who voted UKIP for these reasons. He's not a stupid guy, he's just really disillusioned. He also can't identify in any way with Jeremy Corbyn.

I can't figure out whether this is a pattern that might be repeated in a General Election. If so how can it be addressed?
« Last Edit: May 08, 2016, 01:12:44 PM by Aline »

Offline Earl

  • Gingerbeer Goddess
  • *****
  • Posts: 508
  • Gingerbeer.co.uk - The Lesbian Guide
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2016, 01:27:57 PM »

I can't figure out whether this is a pattern that might be repeated in a General Election. If so how can it be addressed?

Labour increased their vote share....if repeated, it would win the general election. How should this be addressed? With applause?
Nye Bevan, 'the NHS will exist for only as long as the people fight for it'...or something like that.

Offline Aline

  • Gingerbeer Goddess
  • *****
  • Posts: 764
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2016, 03:50:26 PM »
UKIP gains not a worry then?

dukovearl

  • Guest
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2016, 07:22:34 PM »
Labour did increase their vote share (my own councillor by 400 votes) and a higher percentage of their councillors won than Blair's or Cameron's did in their first locals, so I don't think the results are in any rational sense indicative of failure now or in the future.

However I think everyone, not just Labour, needs to be wary of the UKIP effect.




Offline Earl

  • Gingerbeer Goddess
  • *****
  • Posts: 508
  • Gingerbeer.co.uk - The Lesbian Guide
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2016, 07:59:45 PM »

I think everyone, not just Labour, needs to be wary of the UKIP effect.

This. Obviously. But the Tories, desperate to win at all and any cost, will ramp up its bigotry, as sure as eggs is eggs.
Nye Bevan, 'the NHS will exist for only as long as the people fight for it'...or something like that.

Offline MzB

  • Gingerbeer Goddess
  • *****
  • Posts: 5,714
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2016, 08:31:45 PM »
The fact that most of the English local council map is now red is heartening. I thought Gary Younge's piece asserting that Corbyn has demonstrated his viability as a leader was credible too. I hope the right wing of the Labour party decides to at least be open to experiment and 'coalition' under Corbyn's leadership - rather than descending to internal battles. We shall see.

But my understanding is that the voting system is now 'biased' in favour of the Tories. It's to do with the fact that Labour 'loses' its votes in  Scotland on seats it won't win. The Tories 'lose' votes in the South West to the Lib Dems, but since the Lib Dems have been largely wiped out, they won't lose so many in future. This makes it difficult to extrapolate from local election to national election results etc. (and obviously the system as a whole is not proportionate). And of course there are defections from Labour to UKIP, Greens and others. I think it's interesting that these could both be considered to be 'single issue' parties, whose force is as much about how they can influence other parties as about actual seats. So this could raise questions about how far a UKIP vote is a 'protest' vote rather than a positive vote for UKIP as a credible national party of government. And is it a vote for Brexit or for UKIP? And what will the Brexit vote mean for UKIP?

For me there are major issues about devolution here which will only be worked out after EU membership is resolved.



Saga N

  • Guest
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2016, 10:06:33 PM »
I agree - the UKIP thing may well be about the EU. I'm also remembering every political commentator ever aying that local elections can be all about protest voting.

Offline MzB

  • Gingerbeer Goddess
  • *****
  • Posts: 5,714
Re: So... Labour..
« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2016, 11:36:59 PM »
And now John McDonnell is supporting a push for proportional representation. Which could make a Labour / SNP / Green alliance a possible prospect - but could also give a large bloc to UKIP http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/heres-how-the-election-results-would-look-under-a-proportional-voting-system--gJenQmaW2gW